LONDON—The last thing Somalia needs is another conference.

Hundreds of thousands have been spent on lavish gatherings over the years ending in agreements that fall apart weeks later. Somalis even have a phrase for it — fadhi ku dirir — which means “armchair warrior,” or “fighting while sitting down.”

But Thursday’s conference here is different, if for no other reason than the international buzz it has created. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird are among the high-level delegates from 50 countries expected to attend.

“There is skepticism on the part of Somalia because of the history of foreign-led peace processes that have not worked. But at the same time, I have been impressed by the level of hope that has been raised by the London conference,” said Rashid Abdi, an independent Nairobi-based analyst.

“This is partly to do with the way that Britain has conducted a lot of engagement . . . (It’s) impressive diplomacy to create the right atmosphere really to get to know what Somalis feel.”

Since November, when Britain’s Conservative coalition government announced the conference, Britain has appointed its first ambassador to Somalia in 20 years, and earlier this month, Foreign Secretary William Hague travelled to Mogadishu, becoming the first U.K. foreign secretary to visit since 1992.

There is little expectation that Thursday’s five-hour meeting at Lancaster House will solve Somalia’s many problems, but as Abdi notes, there is cautious optimism in what Hague called the “world’s most failed state.”

A paper released last month by Chatham House, an independent London-based policy institute, argues that one of the problems has been the international community’s focus on a centralized power or backing individual leaders, with little regard for clan allegiances and local governance.

“Much of the international attention has been fixed on the re-establishment of a strong central government to little concrete effect,” says the report. “Meanwhile in the north of Somalia, these largely indigenously developed administrations have been making progress.”

While Mogadishu and much of the south has been anarchic for years, Somaliland in the north has thrived, and semi-autonomous regions such as Puntland and Galmudug have established their own governments.

On Sunday, many of Somalia’s leaders agreed on a blueprint for a parliamentary system that will replace the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) when its term expires in August.

Abdurahman Hosh Jibril, Somalia’s Minister of Constitutional Affairs and a former Toronto community leader, headed the conference in Puntland’s capital Garowe. He hailed the agreement as recognizing states within the federal system — addressing in part some of the concerns raised in the Chatham report. Jibril said he was especially proud of the provision that ensures at least 30 per cent of parliamentarians are women.

Somaliland, the northern region hailed as a success story for its self-governance since 1991, was not part of the Garowe conference as it does not consider itself part of Somalia and has been pushing for recognition by the UN.

But Somaliland leaders have come to London for the conference, which Mary Harper, BBC’s Africa editor and author of Getting Somalia Wrong?, called a “huge step.”

“I think they will use this conference as a platform (for independence),” Harper said. “But it will be a side issue in this conference. Other participants will be keen to listen to the Somaliland story but then move on quickly.”

These issues are central to Somalia, but foreign policy has almost exclusively been driven in recent years by concerns about terrorism and piracy.

Al Shabab, a local insurgency opposed to Somalia’s TFG and foreign military and peacekeepers, officially merged earlier this month with Al Qaeda and vowed to increase attacks in Somalia to coincide with the conference.

It may have been last year’s famine that starved nearly 100,000 that prompted Britain to act, but it is no coincidence that as many as 50 British citizens have left here to join the Shabab, and London fears an attack at this summer’s Olympics.

The Shabab has lost much of its territory since forces from Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti joined the 9,000-strong African Union peacekeeping mission of Ugandan, Burundian and TFG soldiers last fall.

But the Shabab remains a fighting force in the south and the TFG, along with international players such as Turkey, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, believe political engagement with less-militant members of the group is inevitable.

The Shabab’s ease at recruiting foot soldiers is largely thanks to the weakness of the internationally backed TFG, which has had so little legitimacy since it was first formed in 2004 that many Somalis have joined the Shabab out of desperation.

The sad fact is that war is profitable and while thousands were dying, corrupt TFG politicians or businessmen became rich and a crisis cottage industry thrived in neighbouring Nairobi.

See Michelle Shephard’s latest report from Mogadishu: somalia.thestar.com. Follow her on Twitter @shephardm.

Source: thestar.com